A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
